Introducing: The Prediction Game 🔮
A competition to predict the events of 2021 for a tantalizing prize
Enter by December 31st to make predictions on everything from the stock market to the Olympics. The more predictions you get right, the more points you'll earn.
The person with the most points at the end of year wins our grand prize: the full value of the Everything Index, a $1,000 fund invested at the beginning of this year by a group of experts including Li Jin, Byrne Hobart, Turner Novak, and Web Smith.
Why predict the future?
by Dan Shipper
Andre Plaut predicted the pandemic—or maybe through sheer psychic power he caused it. I can't tell which one.
In December of 2019 he gifted me his favorite book: The Plague. It's a dark, beautiful novel about—yep, you guessed it—an outbreak of plague in French Algeria.
I read it with abandon. Not as a guide to the future, but as a thought exercise. How would I react in a similar situation?
Little did I know, what I learned in those pages was about to become much less theoretical in the coming year.
Was it pure coincidence? Was it prescience? Or was Andre nudging me with a deep premonition that something bigger would come from this odd outbreak in Wuhan? I don't know—but I do know that being forced to think through a possible future left me better prepared for the actual one we faced.
That's why when Andre came up with the idea of The Prediction Game I was extremely excited. Everyone prognosticates. But The Prediction Game is a chance to put those prognostications on paper, and see how they look at the end of the year. Oh yeah, and win a pretty sweet prize (we'll get to that in a second.)
He ran it last year with a small circle of friends, and they raved about it. So this year we decided to bring it to the whole internet.
Ready to get out your crystal ball?
Or, read on to hear more from Andre.
Why I Started the Prediction Game
by Andre Plaut
I spend a lot of time thinking about the future. I'm guessing most mental health professionals would tell me that I spend too much time thinking about the future. Anticipatory Anxiety, you might call it.
On one hand, I think the future is absolutely terrifying. For one thing, it feels overwhelmingly large. It's like the feeling you get right after you've been to a planetarium and you've spent a little too long thinking about what an infinite universe actually means. But it’s not just large, it’s also completely mysterious, like learning about bioluminescent fish who live in such deep parts of the ocean that sunlight can no longer reach them. And to top it all off, it’s largely out of my control, like when you’re skiing down a mountain and you begin to feel like the speed is just getting away from you.
On the other hand, the future also feels exciting. I love New Year's Eve. It's easily one of my favorite holidays. Putting aside the dancing, the drinks, and being with friends (all of which I love, and all of which I'll miss this year), I love New Year's Eve because it's like finishing that long-ass book you've had on your nightstand forever, and the excitement of knowing you get to start a whole new one. And that new book is nothing but potential. It's 365 pages of opportunities and fresh starts.
I spend a lot of time thinking about the future; the scary parts and the exciting parts. Last year, I began to think that maybe the two could complement each other, or at the very least, the excitement could cancel out some of the scariness. Maybe the future is largely outside of my control, but at least I can have some fun with that. It started at dinner conversations with friends around the holiday season. “What’s the craziest thing you think will happen next year?” or “Who do you think will really win that award?” I wanted to keep track of it to see how well we did.
So finally, I built a game. I launched The 2020 Prediction Game last year for a few friends and family. And well... needless to say things have not gone the way most of us predicted. But the game was really fun to play.
So, we're doing it again for 2021, and I'm thrilled to be doing it with Everything. Here's how it works:
Make Your Predictions by December 31
Use this form to capture your predictions for 2021. We've designed a set of questions to cover all sorts of topics, from business & tech, to global affairs, sports, and culture. Each question has a set of points assigned to it, depending on how difficult it is to get it right. Feel free to research any question you'd like in order to make an informed prediction. The only thing you're not allowed to do is predict something you have direct control over.
Get Points, Win a Prize
We'll send you a quarterly newsletters on everything that has taken place throughout the year. We'll include some of our favorite predictions, and give you updates on who is on the leaderboard. At the end of the year, we'll add up everyone's points and the winner (or winners) will get the full balance of The Everything Index.
The Everything Index
The Everything Index is a fund made up of assets picked by some of Everything's brightest collaborators, writers, and friends. Each of these folks have chosen an asset they want to invest in, from Bitcoin to stocks, and even collectable comic books. $1,000 has been invested into this index and the winner of The 2021 Prediction Game will win however much the index is worth at the end of the year.
Ready to make your predictions? Make sure to submit them before December 31st!
No purchase necessary! Anyone can play, but in order to be eligible to win the prize you need to be a U.S. resident. Read the full terms and conditions here.